- Winter rains, snowfall limited to northern areas.
- Punjab may see normal temperature this winter.
- Low snowfall could impact glacier health.
ISLAMABAD: A top National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) official has said that Pakistan will experience a weak La Niña phase in November and December this year.
Briefing the media in Islamabad on Thursday, Tayyab Shah, the NDMA’s Director Risk Management, said the La Niña phase is expected to last three to four months. He warned that the upcoming winter season will bring less rainfall than usual, particularly from November to January.
According to the NDMA official, the country’s central regions — including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir — will receive below-normal rainfall, while winter rains and snowfall will largely remain confined to northern areas.
Punjab may experience normal temperatures, while the northern, southern, and western parts of the country are likely to record higher-than-usual temperatures.
Shah added that cold winds will enter Pakistan between December and April, with lower humidity levels. The shift in seasonal patterns means winter is now likely to peak in late January instead of December.
He said snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to be 5–7% lower than average, which could affect glacier health and water availability during the summer of 2026.
NDMA officials also noted that reduced snowfall and limited rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan could lead to drought-like conditions, while the presence of monsoon rainfall in 2025 and adequate dam storage should help prevent any major water crisis.
The authority said that by late November, Siberian winds will bring a drop in temperatures across northern and central Pakistan, with northern regions likely to experience severe cold during December.
The NDMA’s projection for the climate phenomenon comes just days after the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) rejected the possibility of the coldest winter this year.
The PMD had said that Pakistan could record “some winter waves” with minor intensity due to “the western wind” during the upcoming months.
Experts say that an abnormal drop in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean triggers La Niña, resulting in disrupted global weather systems, often leading to extreme temperature shifts.
