ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all of the seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) under its International Monetary Fund program ahead of the lender’s expected review in September, according to an assessment of available data.
An IMF team is expected to visit Pakistan in September for the fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The reviews will assess Pakistan’s performance against targets and criteria set for March and June 2026.
QPCs are key requirements under IMF programs, and failure to meet them can require a waiver from the IMF Executive Board. Based on available estimates, Pakistan is expected to meet almost all seven QPCs, although data for one indicator remains unavailable.
Pakistan’s net international reserves are expected to remain above the IMF’s benchmark floors, at less than negative $5 billion against floors of negative $5.6 billion for March and negative $4.8 billion for June.
The State Bank of Pakistan’s net domestic assets are also expected to remain within the required limits, estimated at Rs12 trillion to Rs13 trillion against ceilings of about Rs15.6 trillion to Rs15.8 trillion.
Foreign currency swaps stood at about $1.7 billion in March and $0.9 billion in June, compared with IMF ceilings of $1.75 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively.
Pakistan’s primary surplus was estimated at Rs4 trillion in March and Rs3.6 trillion in June, above the corresponding IMF targets of Rs3.4 trillion and Rs3.1 trillion.
Government guarantees are also expected to remain within the prescribed ceiling. The stock of guarantees stood at about Rs4.3 trillion in December 2025, compared with an IMF ceiling of Rs5.8 trillion, leaving sufficient room to meet the March and June targets.
The revised FY2026 budget allocated Rs706 billion for targeted cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support Programme, exceeding the IMF floor of Rs694 billion. Publicly available data on new tax returns for March and June remains limited.
FBR tax revenue is an indicative criterion rather than a QPC. Based on reported figures, Federal Board of Revenue collections fell about Rs336 billion short of the target. Some of the shortfall could potentially be offset by revenue linked to a court ruling on the super tax, although overall collections are still expected to remain below the annual target.
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The September review is expected to conclude smoothly if Pakistan maintains its performance against the key quantitative targets. Indicative criteria and structural benchmarks are generally expected to be rolled over, adjusted or reset as part of the review process.
