- IIOJK violence may trigger renewed India-Pakistan hostilities.
- Cross-border militant attacks risk Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation.
- Gaza, Ukraine and Venezuela rank among global hotspots.
An American think tank has warned that Pakistan’s disputes with India and Afghanistan could once again escalate into armed conflict in 2026, placing South Asia among the world’s most dangerous flashpoints.
The warning was issued by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in its latest report titled “Conflicts to Watch in 2026”, published by its Center for Preventive Action.
According to the report, renewed armed conflict between Pakistan and India carries a moderate likelihood and moderate impact over Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), which could push both nuclear-armed neighbours back towards military confrontation.
The report cautioned that escalating violence and coercive policies in occupied Kashmir could once again lead to direct military clashes between Islamabad and New Delhi, posing serious risks to regional stability.
Pakistan and India went to war in May after India launched an unprovoked attack on Pakistan following the attack on tourists in the IIOJK.
New Delhi maintains that the terrorists who killed 26 tourists in IIOJK’s Pahalgam were Pakistanis — a charge that Islamabad has denied and has also asked India to partake in a neutral investigation.
Pakistan, during the 87-hour conflict, downed its six fighter jets, including three Rafale, and dozens of drones. The war between the two nuclear-armed nations ended on May 10 with a ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States.
The think tank also flagged the risk of renewed Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, citing resurgent cross-border militant attacks from the Afghan border as a trigger. It assessed this scenario as having moderate likelihood but low impact, warning that continued instability could inflame tensions between the two neighbours.
Islamabad and Kabul engaged in border clashes in October after the Afghan Taliban and militants launched unprovoked attacks against Pakistan’s border posts.
The resulting clashes led to the killing of over 200 Taliban and affiliated militants, while 23 Pakistani soldiers were martyred defending the motherland.
Pakistan also conducted “precision strikes” deep inside Afghanistan, targeting terrorists in Kandahar province and Kabul. However, despite many rounds of talks, both countries failed to reach a ceasefire due tothe Afghan Taliban regime’s reluctance to take action against terrorist outfits.
Beyond South Asia, the CFR identified Israeli violence in Gaza and the West Bank as one of the world’s most dangerous conflicts, alongside the Russia-Ukraine war, the possibility of US military action in Venezuela, and rising political violence within the United States itself.
The report warned that these conflicts collectively could pose serious threats to global peace and US national security in the coming year.
