- Market expert calls GDP rebound “notable recovery” .
- FY25 GDP growth expected between 2.5% % 3.0%.
- SBP cuts policy rate to 11% amid easing inflation.
KARACHI: The Pakistan economy has crossed a symbolic threshold, with nominal GDP surpassing $400 billion for the first time, according to provisional estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).
The committee projected GDP growth of 2.68% for the current fiscal year, taking the economy’s size to Rs114.7 trillion (approximately $411 billion).
In his post on LinkedIn, Sohail Mohammed, chief executive of brokerage firm Topline Securities, described it as a “notable recovery” amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds. He highlighted that nominal GDP in US dollar terms has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% over the past five years.
The government has set a long-term goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy by FY2035 — a target Mohammed says will require “sustained structural reforms, political stability and disciplined external account management.”
National accounts data, released on Tuesday, shows the economy expanding from Rs105.1 trillion in FY24 to Rs114.7 trillion in FY25 — equivalent to a rise from $372 billion to $411 billion. Quarterly growth estimates were also revised upward, with GDP rising 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2.
Despite the improvement, the FY25 growth estimate falls short of the government’s original 3.6% target. Topline Securities puts average quarterly growth for the first nine months at roughly 1.8%. Sector-level data reflect mixed performance: agriculture grew 1.18% in Q3 despite a downturn in key crops, while industrial output contracted 1.14% due to declines in mining, quarrying and large-scale manufacturing.
In a bid to support the recovery, the State Bank of Pakistan lowered its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11% this month. The easing cycle resumed after a brief pause in March, with the central bank citing a more favourable inflation outlook.
Topline expects full-year GDP growth to come in between 2.5% and 3.0%, with agriculture expanding by 1.8%, industry by 1.0%, and services by 3.4%. Meanwhile, the IMF recently trimmed its own forecast for Pakistan’s FY25 GDP growth to 2.6%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2%.
Signs of softening demand in manufacturing also emerged, with the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) easing to 51.9 in April from 52.7 the previous month, reflecting broader uncertainty over global trade conditions.
