On January 14, a few days before the ceasefire in Gaza took effect, the now-former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed a crowd at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.
Over the last 15 months, Blinken has played a crucial role in supporting Israel’s military campaign against Gaza, a campaign that human rights organisations have described as genocidal, in which at least 47,300 Palestinians have been killed.
The goal for Israel, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was the total defeat and elimination of Hamas. But speaking in one of his final appearances as Secretary of State on January 14, Blinken struck a different tone.
“We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken said. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”
Hamas battered but not defeated
Hamas has undoubtedly been hit hard in the last 15 months, analysts and experts told Al Jazeera. It has likely lost thousands of fighters, including its military leader Yahya Sinwar, and, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), its weapons stockpile is depleted.
But as the dust settles in Gaza, it is clear that Hamas has not been eradicated and still has a presence in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas fighters have prominently featured in the handover of Israeli captives as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel. And members of the Hamas-run civil administration have resumed work. If there is any authority in Gaza, it still appears to be Hamas.
“Hamas has an interest in creating an image of strength that is extremely orchestrated, and we should see that as a propaganda exercise,” Hugh Lovatt of the ECFR, told Al Jazeera.
Lovatt added, however, that after “over a year of fighting, the [Hamas] fighters remain very much in control of Gaza”.
“Hamas is trying to show Israel that it failed to destroy it but also that the movement will have a veto over Gaza’s future going forward because neither Israel, the PA [Palestinian Authority], or the international community will be able to impose a post-conflict governance or security arrangement,” Lovatt said.
The scenes during the captive releases have caught many off guard, including Palestinians in Gaza.
“I was very surprised to see the number of the Qassam [Hamas’s military wing] fighters during the release of the Israeli captives,” Fathi al-Ladawi, 67, displaced from Rafah to Nuseirat in central Gaza and a father of eight, told Al Jazeera. “The scale of the strikes and bombardment, especially in northern Gaza, made us think Hamas’s human and military resources had been significantly depleted. But what we saw proves they are still strong – perhaps even stronger than before.”
“[Hamas] was able to hold on to its hostages, who looked to be in good condition, and was able to negotiate and sign a ceasefire agreement with the parties that swore to annihilate it,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
Hamas has also, according to Blinken’s statement, been able to recruit enough fighters to replace those it lost during the war.
The actual number of Hamas fighters killed during the war is difficult to know for certain. Hamas claims it has lost between 6,000 and 7,000 members from its armed and civilian wings, according to an ECFR report, based on interviews with two senior Hamas members. But, the report says, most of Hamas’s estimated 25,000 fighters are likely still alive and in hiding.
Netanyahu claimed that 20,000 “terrorists” had been killed as of November 2024, while Israel’s Military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said approximately 3,000 had been killed between October 6, 2024, and the ceasefire. The UN’s Human Rights Office says that nearly 70 percent of the verified deaths during this period were women and children.
“Only Hamas knows how many members of their military wing, the Qassam Brigades, were killed,” Hamze Attar, a Palestinian military analyst who is from Gaza, told Al Jazeera. “We’re seeing several posts mourning the relatives in a way that uses language indicating that they were fighting, but Hamas did not announce anything.”
Hamas can maintain rebellion ‘for many years’
Among the few acknowledged losses are a handful of Hamas’s leaders.
On the first day of the ceasefire on January 19, Hamas’s spokesperson, known only as Abu Obeida, delivered what he claimed was a “victory speech”. He paid tribute to some of Hamas’s fallen members, including Sinwar, whose death was recorded by an Israeli drone in October; political bloc leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran in late July; and Saleh al-Arouri, killed in Lebanon in January 2024.
Attar pointed out that Abu Obeida did not include the name of Mohammed Deif, the elusive figure who was one of the al-Qassam Brigades’ founders. Israel claimed to have killed Deif in late July, but the death was never officially acknowledged by Hamas.
Among the living include the reported de facto head of Hamas in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, a figure Israel considers more hardline, well-trained and more of a mastermind than his late brother, Yahya, and Ezzedine Haddad, who oversees the Qassam Brigades in northern Gaza.
Israel’s stated goals also included destroying Hamas’s infrastructure, most notably its vast network of tunnels. However, according to Israeli media, Hamas’s tunnel network is still largely operational, though estimates about how much of it is still intact vary significantly. Hamas members told ECFR that many of the tunnels have been restored or preserved and, in some cases, even expanded.
Hamas’s rocket arsenal may have been significantly depleted by Israel. Still, the improvised and primitive rockets can be rebuilt with unexploded ordnance that remains around Gaza.
Hamas recycles “unexploded Israeli rockets, bombs, and artillery shells to use as improvised explosive devices and produce new projectiles”, the ECFR report said.
Hamas’s adaptability as a fighting force, developed over the years as a reaction to Israel’s tactics against it, means it has been built to take numerous blows and still be able to carry on as an organisation.
Hamas popularity
Hamas is not only a military organisation but has run the Gazan government since 2006, when it beat Fatah in the elections.
And while Hamas’s popularity has grown in the West Bank, especially since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in Gaza, some have expressed dissenting opinions towards the group. Still, Hamas’s popularity has not been greatly impacted by Israel’s war on Gaza, as suggested by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research’s polls.
Opinions on the group vary widely among Palestinians in Gaza. Support for Hamas in Gaza was at about 35 percent, according to the latest polling in September 2024, down three percentage points from June 2024.
Some criticisms have attacked Hamas’s failure to predict Israel’s lengthy and brutal response to the attack. Others have claimed Hamas dragged them into a war the people of Gaza, nearly all of whom have lost family, friends and their homes, did not ask to be a part of.
One of their critics was 45-year-old Wael Darwish, from northern Nuseirat.
“This was a catastrophe, not a victory,” he said. “We’ve suffered the greatest disaster in history. If there’s any minor triumph, it’s because of the people’s resilience, not Hamas.”
“While I don’t deny the sacrifices of the resistance, we’re tired,” Darwish said. “The resistance must also consider its people. We’ve shed enough blood.”
“If Hamas remains in power, I’ll leave Gaza immediately,” he continued. “Many feel the same.”
Even before October 7, Hamas faced domestic opposition – including protests against the group’s policies. Some Palestinians in Gaza, however, said the last 15 months had changed their opinion of the group.
“I was happy to see the people, their numbers, and the safety of the Hamas fighters,” Fatima Shammali, 64, a mother of 11, told Al Jazeera. “Although I don’t usually support Hamas, my support for them grew during the war because they managed to counter, even slightly, the Israeli military arsenal.”
Nihal Barakat, 43, a mother of eight who was displaced from the Shati refugee camp to Nuseirat, agreed. “I expect Hamas’s popularity has increased after this war,” she said. “As for its strength, it remains intact, and we hope it is channelled for the benefit of the people.”
“It is clear that many Gazans are frustrated and angry at [Hamas],” Lovatt said. People were angry that Hamas didn’t think through the consequences of their October 7 attack and failed to plan for the “inevitable, disproportionate violent response against Gaza”, Lovatt added.
Lovatt said that criticism of the group was “felt in Hamas itself”, especially among the moderate wing of the group. There were “a lot of criticisms of [late Hamas leader] Yahya Sinwar’s actions and that of a few others who took unilateral decisions”, the analyst said, based on his interviews for the ECFR report.
But even disapproval should not be taken as an endorsement of Israel’s tactics or its occupation of Palestine, experts said.
“During the genocidal war on Gaza, people did not collaborate [with Israel] because they are the enemy and an occupation,” Attar, the military analyst, said. “It is not about Hamas. It is about identity, the resilience and the continuity of Palestinian people. It is not because they love Hamas, but because they love Palestine.”
“The occupation of our land must end. The world needs to stand with us to determine our fate,” al-Ladawi, the displaced father of eight, said. “Spare us from more war; we are exhausted. We should not be punished simply because among us are members of Hamas, Fatah, [Palestinian Islamic] Jihad or any other faction.”
