India is likely to see above-average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025, the government said on Tuesday, maintaining its forecast from April and keeping alive the possibility of higher farm output and economic growth.
Good rains will help bring down food prices, keep inflation within the central bank’s comfort band, and allow the world’s biggest rice exporter to ship more of the staple.
The monsoon is expected to total 106% of the long-term average this year, said M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The India Meteorological Department defines average rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season from June to September.
The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the rain needed to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers in India. With nearly half of the country’s farmland not having any irrigation, it depends on the June-September rains to grow several crops.
Above-average rainfall is most likely over the central and southern India, while southwestern parts of the country could receive average rainfall, Ravichandran said.
Northeastern states are likely to receive below-average rainfall, he said.
The country is likely to receive 108% of the long-term average rainfall in June, Ravichandran said.
The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1, hit the coast of Kerala on Saturday, eight days earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival in 16 years.
After covering Kerala, it quickly moved to most parts of the west coast, including the financial capital Mumbai, nearly two weeks earlier than normal.
The forecast of above-average rainfall will lead to higher planting of water-intensive crops such as rice and sugarcane, a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house said.
“Already, soil moisture levels are better this year because of higher pre-monsoon rainfall. Now IMD forecasting surplus rainfall will give farmers confidence,” he said.
India is the world’s biggest exporter of rice and onions, and the second-biggest producer of sugar. Following surplus rainfall in 2024, India lifted curbs on rice and onion exports but allowed limited sugar exports of 1 million tons.
“If the rains stay good all season, rice and sugar production could be higher this year, and India might end up exporting more,” a New Delhi-based dealer said.
