Under the initial terms of the agreement that brought about a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah in November, the former was to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon by January 26.
That date came and went, but Israel has refused to pull back its military, and the deadline has instead been pushed to February 18. Israel has also continued to sporadically bomb areas in Lebanon – to mass denunciations from the latter – claiming that it is targeting Hezbollah for violations of the ceasefire.
The Israeli presence in southern Lebanon means that thousands of people still cannot return to their homes in border villages, with Israeli troops shooting at people who get too close.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah – a Shia group that is the strongest military force in Lebanon – began on October 8, as the Lebanese group launched strikes in solidarity with the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, which was coming under Israeli attack. Israel intensified its attacks on Lebanon in September and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.
Israel has killed around 4,000 people across Lebanon since October 2023.
Why is Israel still occupying southern Lebanon? How is this a “ceasefire”? And what exactly is Israel’s end game?
Here’s all you need to know.
Did the ‘ceasefire’ stop the war?
While Hezbollah has stopped its attacks, Israel has not.
Israel’s bombing is nowhere near the same intensity as it was before the ceasefire began on November 27, and nightly bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs has stopped.
However, Israel is still carrying out attacks on occasion, some of which are north of the Litani River – which Hezbollah is required to move its forces north of, as per the ceasefire agreement.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a data collection group, has recorded 330 air strike and shelling incidents carried out by Israel between November 27 and January 10, as well as 260 property destruction events.
What about Hezbollah?
Israel claims Hezbollah has also failed to meet the terms of the ceasefire.
Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said Hezbollah has not withdrawn north of the Litani River, which lies in southern Lebanon.
“If this condition is not met, there will be no agreement and Israel will be forced to act on its own to ensure the safe return of residents of the north to their homes,” Katz said in January.
Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem said in a speech in late January that Hezbollah had adhered to the ceasefire agreement but didn’t say specifically whether or not his group had completely withdrawn from the south.
ACLED has recorded one attack carried out by Hezbollah since the ceasefire began.
“Hezbollah has largely refrained from violence – there have been no direct attacks on Israeli soil since the ceasefire took effect, aside from a single attack on December 2 against the Israeli Rwayset Al Alam site in the occupied territories that we code as Syria,” ACLED’s Ameneh Mehvar told Al Jazeera.
Qassem said the group would remain patient despite the repeated attacks against it.
What has the international reaction been?
Lebanon has filed a complaint with the United Nations against Israel for its ceasefire violations.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron urged Israel to meet the first ceasefire deadline to withdraw its troops, to little effect. France and the United States were the agreement’s original brokers.
Is there any recourse for violations?
According to diplomatic sources, the US – a strong ally of Israel – gave assurances that the deal would be adhered to.
But there was no other recourse – and no suggested penalties – should the ceasefire be violated.
Israel has yet to be held accountable for repeated ceasefire violations or extending the ceasefire period until February 18.
What happens if Israel refuses to leave Lebanon?
It’s unclear.
Hezbollah’s Qassem said in a speech in January that his group’s patience might run out with Israel’s violations. But in a more recent speech, he seemed to lay the responsibility to oppose Israel on the Lebanese state.
“The Lebanese state is fully responsible for following up, pressuring and trying to prevent as much as it can, through sponsors and international pressure, this violation and this Israeli aggression,” Qassem said in a televised address last week.
The Lebanese army is supposed to move into southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire agreement.
Any Hezbollah response will be limited by the weakened position it finds itself in. The fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria cut off Hezbollah’s land route to receive weapons from its primary backer, Iran.
Its military capabilities also took a heavy beating during the two-month escalation from September until November, during which Israel invaded Lebanon. And it has lost most of its upper military leadership.
For these reasons, Hezbollah appears reluctant to take any action that will give Israel a reason to intensify its attacks.
