VIENNA: Saudi Aramco is helping develop a new oil refinery in Pakistan, with production potentially starting in 2028, as part of a wider wave of refining expansion across South and Southeast Asia, according to a long-term forecast released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The Pakistan project is one of several refining investments OPEC highlighted in its World Oil Outlook 2026, a 326-page report mapping out global energy trends through 2050. The report groups Pakistan with Indonesia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka among countries in the “Other Asia-Pacific” region that are together expected to add more than 600,000 barrels per day of new refining capacity in the medium term.
In Indonesia, state energy company Pertamina is building a 300,000-barrel-per-day plant in Tuban. In Sri Lanka, the government has approved a project with China’s Sinopec near Hambantota Port that is expected to process about 200,000 barrels a day. Bangladesh and Brunei could also see smaller refining additions, the report said.
OPEC cautioned that many announced refinery projects worldwide, representing more than 18 million barrels a day of potential capacity, are unlikely to be fully realized.
Some remain in early planning or feasibility stages and could face delays or cancellation due to financing and technical hurdles, the organization said. Even so, it estimated global refining capacity will grow by 4.9 million barrels a day over the medium term, with the bulk of that considered likely to materialize.
Africa is expected to lead capacity additions worldwide, adding roughly 800,000 barrels a day, driven largely by projects in Angola and Nigeria. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery reached full operational capacity in February 2026, and the country is preparing to bring a 200,000-barrel-per-day plant in Akwa Ibom online in the coming years, alongside smaller modular refineries. Angola’s state oil company, Sonangol, is advancing new refinery phases in Cabinda, Lobito and Soyo.
The refining buildout comes as OPEC projects steady, long-term growth in global oil consumption. World oil demand is forecast to climb from about 105.1 million barrels a day in 2025 to 113.3 million barrels a day by 2030 and 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050, an increase of 19 million barrels a day over the period, the report said.
Nearly all of that growth is expected to come from developing economies. Demand in OECD countries is projected to rise only slightly through 2030 before declining, falling by close to 8 million barrels a day between 2025 and 2050. Non-OECD demand, by contrast, is set to rise by nearly 27 million barrels a day over the same span, according to the outlook.
India is expected to be the single largest source of that growth, with its oil demand rising by 8.1 million barrels a day by 2050. Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are also expected to post substantial gains, while China’s demand growth is projected to slow to about 1.1 million barrels a day over the full 25-year period.
OPEC attributed the broader demand trajectory to global population growth, rising incomes and continued industrialization in emerging markets. The world’s population is projected to grow by 1.4 billion people to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, while the global economy is expected to more than double in size, from $177 trillion in 2025 to $359 trillion by mid-century, the report said.
Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, oil is expected to remain the single largest source in the global energy mix through 2050, though its share is projected to slip to just under 30%. Combined, oil and natural gas are expected to account for roughly 54% of global energy demand at the end of the forecast period, OPEC said, even as coal use declines and renewables expand their share to about 26%.
The World Oil Outlook is published annually by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna and is intended to inform policymakers, industry stakeholders and market analysts on long-term energy trends, the organization said.
